Market climateLive
Mr. Market climate
Read the weather
Eight gauges — valuation, spreads, breadth and volatility — distilled into one read: is the market demanding, or forgiving?
Beta
The Value Investor’s App
First, the scale nobody pictures correctly: what the same $100 became from 1965, asset by asset, on an unbroken axis.
Research 10 companies free, for lifeEvery feature on all 10. Free for life. No credit card.
Scroll
The Value Investor’s App
$100
Keep scrolling… Buffett hasn’t shown up yet
The idea
Fat Pitches turns the Buffett–Munger philosophy into a working app: the same process, on top of your own broker. Know the boundaries of your circle of competece. Avoid risk, be selective. Demand a Margin of Safety on the price. And when the Fat Pitch comes, swing big.
The index, plain$45,500
Just 10% of Buffett’s annual edge$70,000+54% over the S&P 500
Berkshire, the full edge$6,100,000
At these rates the gap to the index doubles every 8 years. The cost of waiting is not linear.
Estimated annualized returns in USD, 1965–2026: Berkshire Hathaway 19.8% · S&P 500 total return 10.4% · IBEX 35 total return ≈ 8.4% · US housing with rent ≈ 8.5% · Spanish housing with net rent ≈ 6%, price only ≈ 3.9%. The 10% scenario is hypothetical: +0.9 pp per year over the index for 61 years. Illustrative, not a promise. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Before the tools
You don’t need more signals.You need a process you can trust.
News, volume, and price moves are designed to capture attention. Research shows retail investors are more likely to buy the stocks that capture it. But attention is not evidence. A price move is not a thesis, and an alert is not a reason to act. FatPitches helps you define the business, the value, and the price before the market asks for a reaction.
Others sellFatPitches
AttentionA thesis you can defend
More signalsA stress test of the ones that matter
RecommendationsA judgment on the business
Price alertsA price you set in advance
PredictionsThe discipline to wait
Market ActivityPatience business research
Before any price
Most of what you research should PROUDLY end in NO.
Three gates stand between a company and a hole on your card.
- Gate 1
Circle of competence
Is this a business you understand well enough to tell when its story stops being true? Know the boundaries of your circle.
- Gate 2
The risk valve. Go - no go
Knowing the risk, can you picture the business long term? You better don't compensate for that. Rule #2
- Gate 3
Opportunity cost
Is this business your best alternative? Decide where it belongs among the three piles for investing: too hard, no or yes.
The platform
- Business riskWhat could kill the company, whatever the price.
- QualityIs the business durable enough to own?
- Skin in the gameAre management’s incentives aligned with yours?
- Price riskAfter the valveWhat it is worth, and how far it can fall.
- Entry priceAfter the valveThe price you’ll actually pay, and the margin it leaves.
- ConvictionAfter the valveYour reasoned confidence, written down and scored.
- SizingAfter the valveHow much of the portfolio this one name gets.
Meet Ben AI: the analyst who challenges your ideas before you invest
BENAI
I ask the questions your thesis hopes you won’t ask. And I constantly recall you rule #1
Business risk 01
What could kill the company
Years of 10-Ks, 10-Qs, 8-Ks and earnings calls, read and scored for concern, with the elevated flags named rather than buried. Search every quarter at once — and see which analyst questions management did not answer.
BENAI
I build the bear case — what could kill this business, and what the market might be missing.
Concern scoreElevated flagsFull-text searchDodged questions
Quality 02
Is the business durable enough to own?
A quality-minus-junk score grades profitability, safety and earnings integrity against sector peers. Then the same decade is replayed as what you pay against what you get — so cheap and cheap-for-a-reason stop looking alike.
QMJ · RQS · F-scoreROICAccrualsBeneish M-scorePayout & dilution
Skin in the game 03
Are management’s incentives aligned with yours?
Insider ownership, buyback timing and what the chief executive is actually paid to hit, read straight from the latest proxy. Then every Form 4 filed, and which of 13 investors worth following already hold it.
CEO alignmentBuyback timingCEO pay ratioForm 413F holdings
Price risk 04
What it’s worth, and how far it can fall
Three stressed floors — earnings power, book value, recoverable — put a number on permanent loss, and the 52-week low and 200-day sit apart from them as price references, not estimates of worth. A three-scenario discounted cash flow then prices the business, and a reverse DCF reads back what the market is already assuming.
Earnings-power floorBook-value floorBear · Base · BullReverse DCF
Entry price 05
The price you’ll actually pay
Drag the entry and the intrinsic value, and the margin of safety moves with them — 47% at $227, and how far the quote still has to travel to get there. Analyst targets and 17 years of valuation history sit underneath as context, not instruction.
Margin of safetyDistance to triggerEV/EBIT bandShort interest
Conviction 06
Your reasoned confidence, written down
A weighted scorecard you answer yourself, question by question. Facts are supplied to judge from — never a verdict — and every thesis you write is argued against a steelmanned bear. No order clears without one.
BENAI
I challenge your thesis against the consensus before you score your confidence.
Weighted scoreVersionedBackground evidenceThe case against
Sizing 07
Volatility is not risk. So we don’t size by it.
Textbook position sizing divides by variance — the more a price wobbles, the smaller the bet. That makes price movement the definition of risk, which is the opposite of what every value investor says they believe.
Ours never mentions volatility. It sizes off how far the stock can fall to a balance-sheet floor, then caps that against your own risk budget. Two ceilings, and the tighter one wins.
weight = min( Kelly ceiling , risk budget ÷ downside to floor )
Size a position — free, no account
Type the price you would pay. It's sized against a cached balance-sheet floor and the risk budget you pick. Nothing is stored, and no market quote is published.
Also in the platform
Framed to keep you objective
The hard part isn’t the math — it’s behavior. Color and framing are tuned to cool you down, not light you up; no order clears without a written conviction; and the thesis is yours, argued against a steelmanned bear — never the consensus AI take.
Before you decide
What is the punchcard?
Your membership card, with twenty holes. Paying members also carry a Member №. Buffett said most investors would do better with a card that allowed twenty punches in a lifetime — one per investment decision, no refills. Research is not what gets punched: read as much as your plan allows. A hole is punched when a company you are waiting on finally trades at your price — a fat pitch. Twenty holes, one lifetime, the same card on every plan. Patience is what fills it.
What exactly is free?
Full research on 10 stocks, for life, with nothing held back on any of them: the full analysis suite, the quality screener, the conviction journal, the virtual portfolio, and Ben ✧ AI drafting your journal answers from the company's own filings. It is a product, not a trial. There is no countdown and no expiry date, and we have committed publicly to keeping it that way. The position-size calculator doesn't count toward your 10 — it needs no account at all.
Do I need a credit card?
Not for the free plan. No card, no billing details, nothing to cancel. A card only comes up if you choose Essential after working through your 10.
What is FatPitches?
FatPitches is the value investor’s platform. A place to understand a business, challenge your investment thesis, set the price you would pay, and wait. Most investing software wants you to watch more, screen more, react faster, and trade more often. The old agency problem. FatPitches is built for the opposite.
Who is FatPitches for?
FatPitches is for investors who want to own understandable businesses for years, not rent ticker symbols for days. For people who care more about cash flow than commentary. For people who would rather pass on ten plausible ideas than force one mediocre decision. For people who want a toolkit, not a casino.
Does FatPitches tell me what to buy?
No. FatPitches does not replace your judgment. It asks more of it. It helps you make your assumptions visible: what must remain true about the business, what price makes the investment attractive, what could invalidate the thesis, and how much capital the opportunity deserves. A tool that tells you what to buy teaches dependence. A tool that helps you think clearly gives you a process you can keep.
How does FatPitches use AI?
Ben ✧ AI isn't here to tell you what to buy, or why. It is here to show you what the market appears to believe—and to ask whether you have earned the right to disagree. FatPitches uses AI to map the consensus, expose assumptions, surface counterarguments, and pressure-test your thesis. The machine can bring the questions. Only you can own the answer.
What does “challenge your investment thesis” mean?
Most investors do not need more reasons to like an idea. They need a better way to find the reasons they might be wrong. FatPitches helps separate what you know from what you assume, a good business from a good purchase, a temporary price fall from a broken business, confidence from evidence, and a story from an investment case. Your thesis should not be protected from criticism. It should be improved by it—or abandoned when the facts demand it.
Why does FatPitches focus on businesses instead of stocks?
Because a ticker is not an investment. It is a symbol attached to a fractional claim on a real business: its customers, margins, cash flows, debt, management, competitive advantages, and ability to reinvest capital. The market quotes a price every second. The business changes much more slowly. FatPitches is designed to keep your attention on the thing you are actually buying.
Why is waiting part of the product?
Because waiting is part of the work. A wonderful business can still be a poor investment at the wrong price. And a falling share price is not automatically an opportunity. The discipline is simple and difficult: understand the business, decide what it is worth, set the price you would be happy to pay, keep your cash available, and wait. Doing nothing is not the absence of a strategy. Doing nothing can be the strategy.
What is a fat pitch?
A fat pitch is not simply a stock that fell. It is an ownership opportunity where several things line up: the business is understandable, the economics are attractive, the risks are visible and acceptable, the thesis can withstand scrutiny, the price offers enough margin for error, and the opportunity is good enough to deserve scarce capital. Most companies will not qualify. That is the point. Enjoy Buffett's masterclass.
Is FatPitches for traders?
No. If you want more signals, faster entries, momentum setups, technical indicators, or reasons to trade today, FatPitches is probably not for you. It is for investors willing to let opportunities go by, hold cash without guilt, and act only when business quality and price finally align.
Why does FatPitches include position sizing?
Because being right is not enough. An investor also has to decide how much of their capital belongs behind an idea. A small position in a truly exceptional opportunity and an oversized position in a fragile thesis are both allocation mistakes. FatPitches treats sizing as a consequence of knowability, downside, price, and conviction—not simply volatility. Your capital is a bucket. The question is not only whether a business is attractive. It is whether this is the best use of the water still in the bucket.
What if I find no opportunities?
Then FatPitches is working. A tool that always gives you something to buy is not a tool for disciplined investing. It is a machine for turning attention into activity. There will be periods when excellent businesses are expensive. There will be periods when you do not know enough. There will be periods when the right answer is to study, wait, or pass. Cash is not a failure to invest. Cash is the ability to invest when the right opportunity finally appears.
Will FatPitches make me a better investor?
Only if you use it to become harder to fool. Not harder for the market to fool. Harder for you to fool. FatPitches can make assumptions visible. It can make price discipline explicit. It can make a thesis easier to revisit. It can show when the facts no longer support the story. But it cannot do the most important part for you: it cannot make you wait.
Is FatPitches financial advice?
No. FatPitches is a research and decision-support tool. It helps you structure your thinking, examine a business, document an investment thesis, and define your standards. It does not know your complete financial situation, objectives, tax circumstances, liquidity needs, or tolerance for loss. You remain responsible for every investment decision.
Is my data private?
Privacy is one of FatPitches's core values. We use the minimum data required to run the service. Your invoicing details never even reach our servers — we partner with Paddle, our merchant of record, which takes good care of them. We don't sell your data, and we never will. Period.
Free research on 10 stocks — every feature, forever. No credit card. No password. Your thesis, your decisions.
